000 AXNT20 KNHC 012358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON SAT EVENING TO THE S OF 22N W OF 94W AND NW OF A COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST 12 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N24W TO 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 7W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 14W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO 27N90W TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO BEYOND 16N94W PRODUCING PRIMARILY A WINDSHIFT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF SAT EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N68W TO 12N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ELSEWHERE... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA AT 15N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. RIDGING IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER E HISPANIOLA. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TWO SURFACE TROUGHS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20N-30N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W. IN THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N35W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N BETWEEN 55W-80W. FINALLY EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 55W-65W N OF 24N DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA