000 AXNT20 KNHC 011036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... FORMER TROPICAL WAVE HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N91W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 11N90W IN THE E PACIFIC. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OFF THE COASTLINES OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 89W-92W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N34W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N E OF 14W AND FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 16W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N54W. SURFACE RIDGING IN THIS REGION IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF FROM 29N90W TO 27N96W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THIS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 69W-75W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N63W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 12N69W. UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 69W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE FROM 30N52W SW TO 27N62W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 30N50W TO 24N57W AND A LINE FROM 30N60W TO 25N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N59W TO 10N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR