000 AXNT20 KNHC 310558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N79W TO 10N80W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N35W TO 07N46W 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N68W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BASIN WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 10N80W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 67W. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRIDAY MORNING. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND TO EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N55W TO 25N61W TO 18N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 27N57W TO 20N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 54W-57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO 06N52W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-15N EAST OF 28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR