000 AXNT20 KNHC 302351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N77W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 11N79W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SW OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 78W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF S GUINEA AT 9N13W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 8N42W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 11W- 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 17W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N81W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 95W-97W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN N OF 27N. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THEE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER E HISPANIOLA. A SMALL CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST S OF HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE OTHER CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N81W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM 32N54W TO 27N60W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT 19N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N60W TO 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 53W-58W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 55W-73W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 53W-57W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N35W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STAIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA