000 AXNT20 KNHC 301805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N76W ALONG 15N77W TO 12N77W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N- 16N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 81W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N21W 10N30W 8N39W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 21W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N95W AND EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS WELL INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU EVENING REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS EARLY FRI THEN FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W GULF BY LATE FRI AND FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 64W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 64W-87W DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT BEFORE IT STALLS LATE SAT INTO SUN. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TODAY THEN LINGER INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA SAT AND SUN. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME CUT OFF IN THE CARIBBEAN THU AND DRIFT W THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 25N62W TO OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 26N58W TO 20N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N58W TO 30N55W. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 19N60W ALONG 15N59W TO 9N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 53W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W. COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TODAY THEN LINGER INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA BY SAT AND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO E CUBA BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW