000 AXNT20 KNHC 301043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 10N74W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N30W TO 07N45W 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 11W- 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 18W-34W AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 21N93W TO 15N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 10N74W. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N- 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...NORTHEASTERN ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE COASTLINE...THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ALREADY GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE JUST S OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH TAIL REACHES ADJACENT WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO INLAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N60W TO 24N63W TO 19N68W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 30N57W TO 27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N58W TO 08N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 56W- 61W...FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W AND FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 52W- 59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR