000 AXNT20 KNHC 300556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N73W TO 11N74W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N BETWEEN 64W-73W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N28W TO 06N40W 04N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 15W- 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N-18N E OF 30W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 20N92W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN HAITI NEAR 19N73W TO 11N74W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY- NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N BETWEEN 64W-73W. SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTLINE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO INLAND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS...RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 30N60W TO 25N63W 20N67W. THE SECOND FRONT IS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM 30N63W TO 24N68W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N43W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-61W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT S OF 27N. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND A RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTLINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-22N BETWEEN 51W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR