000 AXNT20 KNHC 291101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 08N61W AND MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO 07N37W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N E OF 22W...FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 23W-37W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N83W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 22N93W TO 13N92W IN THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-94W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WESTERN ATLC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N W OF 75W. IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 08N61W AND MOVING W NEAR 15- 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT NEAR 27N70W TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ISLANDWIDE. A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N62W TO 27N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 06N-19N BETWEEN 50W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N21W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS STATIONARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR