000 AXNT20 KNHC 290549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N64W TO 07N59W AND MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES TO 14N19W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THERE IS A BREAK BETWEEN THIS AXIS AND THE ITCZ...WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 06N21W TO 08N40W 05N53W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-18N BETWEEN 17W-27W AND WITHIN 140 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST ATLC NEAR 37N70W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 22N92W TO 13N92W IN THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AXIS S OF 20N. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WESTERN ATLC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N W OF 77W...INCLUDING JAMAICA. IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 14N82W TO 10N78W. IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 68W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N64W TO 07N59W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK TO PASS CLOSE TO SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO TODAY AND THROUGH HISPANIOLA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ISLANDWIDE AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N58W TO 25N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN 60W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N23W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS STATIONARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR