000 AXNT20 KNHC 290001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM NEAR 18N63W TO 13N61W TO 08N56W...AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE EXTENDING NE TO SW JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AND CENTERED ACROSS THE E ATLC HAS AIDED IN MAINTAINING A STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC JET WITH THIS WAVE...WITH 25-30 KT SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AT 700 HPA WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS RACING WWD 15-20 KT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS SLOWED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OFF S AMERICA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES TODAY INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 18N...WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITH THE WAVE...AND E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ISOLATED TSTORMS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE E CARIB E OF 65W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WWD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E CARIB. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13.5N18W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 12N20W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING W-SW THROUGH 08N35W TO 05N46W TO 07.5N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 210 NM SE OF BOTH THE TROUGH AND ITCZ E OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA...WHILE NEAR ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN TODAY IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER RIDGING IS SHIFTING E OFF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF ALONG 95W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN DRAGGED WWD BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ISOLATED SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE YUCATAN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG NEAR 23N. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BEYOND TUE...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING WWD INTO SW PORTIONS TUE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FLAT UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N90W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR E CARIB IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS E OF 65W...MODERATE ELY TRADES GENERALLY DOMINATED THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CARIB LOW LEVEL JET OFFSHORE OF W VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NW PORTIONS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E COAST OF YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE...BUT IS ILL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO AMPLE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NW PORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 82W. A BROAD ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE S OF THE FRONT AND JUST W OF THIS TROUGH PREVAILS N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. LOOK FOR THIS MOISTURE AND ACTIVE CONVECTION TO SHIFT WWD AND INTO THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND NE CARIB ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AND REACH 72W BY TUE EVENING. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EWD ACROSS W CUBA AND THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH STRONG SE UPPER JET TO ITS E. INDUCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY PREVAILS E AND SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO HAITI. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE E OVERNIGHT AND TUE AND CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE MORNING BUT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE...UPPER CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THERE. MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS AND STRONG TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT CARIB WATERS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN E OF 50W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 50W...AND ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 31N61W THROUGH 26.5N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS ALONG AND S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO DRIFT NW E OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE N OF THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IGNITE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT FROM 64W TO 75W...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE THERE CONTINUES. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SE U.S. IS YIELDING A NARROW ZONE OF FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS WWD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOOK FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT NW OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY TO ITS N...BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE PICKS UP THE FRONT AND SHIFTS IT EWD TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING