000 AXNT20 KNHC 281039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N58W TO 07N53W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 48W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N30W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 17W- 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHILE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N92W TO 14N94W IN THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 20N79W TO 14N78W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE HIGH MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL JAMAICA AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ISLANDWIDE AS WELL AS TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 30N61W ALONG 24N71W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR