000 AXNT20 KNHC 271120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N49W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 45W-52W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 06N30W TO 02N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 14W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT E-NE WINDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY NEAR 28N83W TO 22N97W...AND IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N92W TO 22N97W. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE MONDAY WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE NW GULF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY THURSDAY AND QUICKLY SKIRT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS BEFORE THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CONVERGENT TRADES AND THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE DRAPED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 15N W OF 77W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N81W TO 15N85W WITH CONVECTION MAINLY OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N70W AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N71W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W NE TO 23N60W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. OVERALL THIS IS PROVIDING FOR A FEW MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE. TO THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH...A FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 21N AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE MORNING PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET... WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO 27N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED FROM 20N- 32N BETWEEN 57W-70W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N62W TO 25N68W TO 22N78W. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N33W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A DOMINATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN