000 AXNT20 KNHC 261727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N41W TO 4N47W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DISTINCT MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 6N24W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N30W TO 4N35W TO 8N43W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 7N48W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 15W- 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS TO E TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N27W TO 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...15-20 KT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS AT 15N84W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N71W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM S OF PUERTO RICO AT 17N66W TO VENEZUELA AT 10N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-69W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND DUE TO SURFACE FRONTS AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE MOSTLY SE OF THE ISLAND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO THE BAHAMAS AT 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 26N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 70W-75W...AND FROM 23N-39N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTRED NEAR 23N58W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N37W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS TO MERGE WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA