000 AXNT20 KNHC 252353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N37W TO 6N39W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-42W AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 39W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N71W TO 12N68W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N29W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N43W AND CONTINUES TO 7N56W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-42W...FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 39W-40W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N42W TO 9N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 9N57W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-64W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W ACROSS W CUBA TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT AND SE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N81W TO 10N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO OVER COLOMBIA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 77W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SAT. TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY W AWAY FROM HAITI BY SAT AFTERNOON WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E BY EARLY SUN. THIS WILL LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ENTERS THE W ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N61W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N72W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N TO THE FRONT W OF 65W. DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO 25N70W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATES WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF LORENZO IS A 1019 MB LOW NEAR 32N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 27N46W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 16N14W ALONG 23N27W TO 24N38W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM S AND E OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N51W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW