000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N35W TO 9N38W TO 
4N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  A DISTINCT MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERES OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 31W-44W.  

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA AT 
18N69W TO VENEZUELA AT 10N67W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 
12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 6N26W TO 
8N36W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 
7N40W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. BESIDES 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 20W-
31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE ARKANSAS 
NEAR 36N90W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N80W TO W CUBA AT 22N84W TO JUST N OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 
18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 25-30 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A GOOD 
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. 
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. ALSO 
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N82W TO THE COAST 
OF PANAMA AT 10N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERA RE 
OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-80W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE W OF 
85W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA 
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
THE ISLAND IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO THE 
BAHAMAS AT 25N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 23N80W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W. THE REMNANTS OF 
LORENZO IS NOW A 1018 MB LOW AT 32N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
S OF THE LOW TO 28N45W TO 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS JUST E OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N10W TO 25N20W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES 
TO 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTRED NEAR 22N55W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 32N38W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA