000 AXNT20 KNHC 251206 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W 16N66W 11N64W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W TO 7N25W 6N32W 5N40W AND 4N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N64W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL IS INLAND IN THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVERS THE AREA FROM GUATEMALA TO 20N BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 25N81W AND 19N94W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W AND 17N97W IN MEXICO.. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KVAF. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE VISIBILITY AT VICTORIA TEXAS IS AT OR LESS THAN 3 MILES...AND AT OR LESS THAN 1 MILE WITH FOG IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT 22N84W 22N90W 18N93W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 95W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 24N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TO 13N75W...TOWARD THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS PERSISTED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 1017 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LORENZO IS NEAR 32N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE EASTERNMOST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 26N20W 25N30W 25N34W AND 26N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N37W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...AND THE 1017 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LORENZO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LORENZO 1012 MB TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N46W...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 61W. A THIRD FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT 31N64W 23N81W...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT