000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N59W 9N56W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT INLAND. PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO OTHER FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENGAL AND GUINEA...TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N19W TO 8N26W 6N33W 5N41W...AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N71W TO 23N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 22N90W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING TO 18N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVERS THE AREA FROM GUATEMALA TO 20N BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 26N80W AND 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...TO 18N97W TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...KVAF...AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT 22N84W 21N91W 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 93W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO 9 FEET FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TO 17N75W 12N75W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N73W...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI... TO 16N75W AND 13N75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS PERSISTED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 7N75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 1017 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LORENZO IS NEAR 31N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE EASTERNMOST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. OTHER CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 28N20W AND 26N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 13N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N36W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LORENZO 1012 MB TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N47W...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A THIRD FEATURE IS THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR A STATIONARY FRONT 31N63W 22N77W...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT