000 AXNT20 KNHC 242347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N31W TO 6N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 10N62W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-17N. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 24/1800 UTC ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N27W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N35W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N43W TO 6N55W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N51W TO 8N52W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 44W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W OVER NW CUBA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N92W THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 80W AND SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES W OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FRI WITH THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 79W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N W OF 81W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N82W TO 11N78W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO 12N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 77W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 20N THIS WEEKEND THEN DISSIPATE MON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO 12N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL SUN WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA ALONG 28N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. DENSE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N77W TO 29N70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATES WITH THE FRONT. UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-72W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 26W TO AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N17W ALONG 27N25W TO 27N38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND BECOME DIFFUSE THIS WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW