000 AXNT20 KNHC 241118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.8N 47.8W. LORENZO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N47W IN ONE CLUSTER OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... .COLD FRONT 25N81W TO 19N92W. S OF 20N W OF 95W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT BETWEEN 90W AND 95W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N59W 9N56W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT INLAND. PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO OTHER FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENGAL AND GUINEA...TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N19W TO 8N26W 6N33W 5N41W...AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING TO 18N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 30N86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...26N92W AND 23N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF 32N57W 28N63W 23N73W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... THROUGH LOUISIANA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...TO 18N97W TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...KGBK... KHQI...AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN PORT ISABEL TEXAS. PATTERSON LOUISIANA IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 86W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N74W...JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED STRONG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM 16N TO 21N... SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ALONG 83W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 29N30W AND 28N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N14W 25N26W 27N41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 44W....AND FROM 20N TO 32N...EXCLUDING THE AREA OF A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO...BETWEEN 40W AND 64W. A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N35W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS IS WITH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS THE 42 HOUR FORECAST... STATIONARY FRONT 31N62W 22N76W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT