000 AXNT20 KNHC 231117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 49.2W. LORENZO IS MOVING EASTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AT THIS MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED MORE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N79W 15N80W 10N81W MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST TO THE NORTH OF 13N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 8N20W 5N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N29W TO 2N38W TO 3N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE PART THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N90W 26N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N87W 24N98W. STATIONARY FRONT 29N82W 25N90W 19N96W. .NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS...GALE WARNING...AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 19N TO 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 18N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI...WESTERN HAITI...AND TO 17N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 66W AND JAMAICA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EITHER A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND/OR A TROUGH WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 61W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN LONG-LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IN BUOY DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST TO THE NORTH OF 13N...AND COVERING LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 83W AT THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 44W. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N41W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS IS WITH THE 6 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N78W 28N81W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 72W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS IN THE 30 HOUR FORECAST...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT