000 AXNT20 KNHC 230604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 50.0W. LORENZO IS MOVING EASTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AT THIS MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED MORE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N77W 16N79W 10N81W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE WAVE IS MOVING CLOSE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N79W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W 8N25W 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N32W TO 5N40W 8N46W 9N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 18N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N71W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HAITI...WESTERN HAITI...TO 17N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EITHER A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND/OR A TROUGH WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 74W... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 31N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES CONTINUES FROM 31N77W...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE PART THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N91W 27N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N76W 29N78W 28N79W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF...POSSIBLY CLEARING UP AT KGUL...KGBK...AND KMYT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS FROM SARASOTA TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N84W 19N95W...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PUTS THE COLD FRONT ALONG 28N83W 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS...GALE WARNING...SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ELSEWHERE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W...ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 10N79W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 83W AT THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W...TO 27N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N42W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LORENZO. A SECOND AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS IS WITH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N78W 28N81W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS IN THE 48 HOUR FORECAST...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT