000 AXNT20 KNHC 221747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO AT 22/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.5N 52.0W. LORENZO IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON LORENZO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 50W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 73W-84W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W TO 5N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N31W TO 5N40W TO 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 10W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO THE SW GULF AT 23N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N91W TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 28N97W. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THIS FRONT WITH A GOOD DROP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LATTER FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A GALE OVER THE SW GULF N OF FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N76W TO PANAMA AT 9N80W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W WITH CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC AT 21N67W TO HISPANIOLA AT 19N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DONINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W TO E CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MORE CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 32N73W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. T.S. LORENZO IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N41W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N15W TO 30N21W DISSIPATING TO 29N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N45W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC AND REACH S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA