000 AXNT20 KNHC 210604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N55W...THROUGH THE 1015 MB LOW CENTER...TO 26N60W AND 25N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED AND IT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND THEN TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N35W 8N35W 4N34W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ ALSO. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N67W 15N68W 10N69W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 10N21W TO 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N24W TO 3N28W 7N40W 8N48W AND 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 14N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N64W AND 29N62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. EARLIER ISOLATED MODERATE THAT WAS ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY HAS DISSIPATED. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... WILL COVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOW THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR MORE OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 25N88W 22N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N90W TO 22N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W 26N90W 21N92W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG... KBBF...KGUL...KGBK...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36- HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION ALONG 30N91W 27N96W 23N98W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.34 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE MARACAIBO AND 76W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 79W...AND BETWEEN 79W AND 80W WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 25N18W...18N27W 15N38W AND 13N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 27N22W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N32W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N46W...BEYOND 32N50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST...OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT