000 AXNT20 KNHC 201051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N29W TO 8N30W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO 9N65W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N30W 5N37W TO NEAR 4N47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-20W AND FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 52W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A NEWLY MERGED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 20/0900 UTC JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N89W 21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 205 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-84W INCLUDING THE LOW FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TODAY BEFORE LIFTING N AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE REACHING FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF BY LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N79W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA S OF PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-79W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A NEWLY MERGED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 20/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N77W AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST N OF TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM W CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 67W. A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N65W AND DIPPING S TO OVER PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N- 27N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N50W ALONG 25N55W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N50W TO 28N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N40W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING N AGAIN MON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE REACHING FROM 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW