000 AXNT20 KNHC 191123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N23W TO 7N24W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N20W TO 10N24W. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N56W TO 6N57W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 13N65W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N13W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6.5N11W AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N19W TO 6N24W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N25W TO 8N40W...AND COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 19/0900 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N90W TO 28N95W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N84W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W INCLUDING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. STALLED FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING INTO MON. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF TUE AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N78W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 9N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N W OF 75W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL REACH THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON AND THE SW CARIBBEAN BY WED. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 67W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N72W TO 23N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W TO A SECOND STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR 22N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N49W TO 21N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 47W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 53W-66W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N60W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N39W. A LINGERING COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR E ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N13W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W THEN DISSIPATES TO 25N20W. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE MERGED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW