000 AXNT20 KNHC 190513 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N21W TO 7N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 6N56W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N64W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ILL- DEFINED AT ALL LEVELS. POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL NEAR 11N21W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-20W... WITHIN 150 NM OF N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-40W...FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 40W-48W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N21W TO 7N30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 19/0300 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY AND CONTINUES TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS TO A 1011 MB LOW JUST W OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W-93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 26N TO JUST INLAND OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W INCLUDING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THIS MORNING. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH TEXAS COAST SAT MORNING AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH FIRST FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST SUN AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT N INTO N GULF COAST LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A THIRD FRONT TO MOVE INTO N GULF TUE AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N77W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 10N82W TO OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 69W. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N71W TO 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N62W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 23N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 47W-52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 52W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N57W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N41W. A LINGERING COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR E ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N26W. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW