000 AXNT20 KNHC 190015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N20W TO 6N21W MOVONG W AT 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N51W TO 5N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 44W-57W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO 9N64W MOVING W AT 12 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W AND ENDS AT 10N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N23W TO 7N43W TO 10N50W. THE ITCZ RESUMES FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N53W TO 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO 27N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 28N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF HOUSTON TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE S TO LA PESCA MEXICO WHILE THE OTHER END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS E OVER N FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... AND PUERTO RICO. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 17N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO N GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N67W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF 70. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N58W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N43W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N15W TO 28N20W TO 25N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N50W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 45W-54W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH AT 23N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 60W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA