000 AXNT20 KNHC 181144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 21N15W TO 8N19W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N W OF THE WAVE TO 20W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N47W TO 7N52W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W- 54W. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N59W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 56W AND THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO E OF THE NEWLY ADDED TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N36W TO 11N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 21W-32W AND FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 34W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF PANAMA CITY AND CONTINUES TO 28N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W INCLUDING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE MON INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 64W-75W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W AND ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W- 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 78W AND S OF 12N W OF 78W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUN THEN ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INTO THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING E GIVING THE ISLAND A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CLIP THE ISLAND ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA/ PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N69W ALONG 24N72W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 57W-64W AND FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N- 26N BETWEEN 68W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N48W TO 19N50W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 43W-48W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N57W. A LINGERING COLD FRONT IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 28N25W TO 26N31W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW