000 AXNT20 KNHC 172309 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N44W TO 5N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-51W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N49W TO 10N54W MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SENEGAL AT 13N17W AND ENDS AT 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 8N30W TO 11N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N86W TO 27N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 15N NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N84W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK TO S TEXAS WHILE THE OTHER END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS E OVER N FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 63W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA ... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 17N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO N GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY E. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO 28N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHERE AND EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA ALONG 23N73W 20N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 64W-71W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N24W TO 28N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N40W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH AT 28N64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION FROM 22N- 27N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING 360 NM E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA