000 AXNT20 KNHC 171755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N43W 6N42W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N47W 17N49W 11N51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LONG-TERM LOOP OF SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W... TO 8N17W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 8N30W AND 10N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N23W TO 3N38W TO 7N39W 8N51W 11N52W 12N48W 12N41W 10N36W 7N23W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N91W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE GULF WATERS. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE 1016 MB HIGH CENTER...BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TEXAS COASTAL PLATFORM SITES...KBQX...KBBF...AND KMZG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF...KEMK...KGUL... KHQI...KVBS...KEIR...AND KMYT. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR... GALVESTON...AND AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA... INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND IN MISSISSIPPI. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND VALPARAISO FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER AIRPORT IN FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE PUBLIC-USE AIRPORT IN FORT MYERS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N64W..TO 23N67W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 30N67W 28N70W 24N73W 21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT SURROUND HISPANIOLA TO THE NORTH OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. WEAKENING BUT POSSIBLE REMNANT PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.88 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N84W IN EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 11N75W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N54W...TO A 20N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N53W TO 10N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 18N55W 16N58W. THE 22N47W 17N49W 11N51W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W..AND NEAR NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 30N28W. A DISSIPATING AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N28W TO 28N34W 28N41W ...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 27N45W TO 28N50W AND 32N55W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W 29N26W 28N33W 27N40W 28N46W 28N52W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 27N22W 24N33W AND 24N41W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 28N35W 27N45W...THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N55W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET...EXCEPT SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY PART OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT