000 AXNT20 KNHC 152335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N43W TO 13N46W TO 8N48W MOVING W AT 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 10N85W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA- BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 7N30W TO 7N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 23W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SE. THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE N GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 7N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 27N77W 22N78W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A WEST ATLANTIC 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 28N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 66W-76W. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 29N40W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHINH 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 56W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N21W WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N53W TO 12N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 48W-53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION FROM FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 48W-53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA