000 AXNT20 KNHC 142347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N38W TO 7N43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 10N81W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-85W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 12N16W AND ENDS JUST OFF THE COAST AT 11N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N17W TO 6N26W TO 6N33W TO 10N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 27N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W ENHANCING CONVECTION AND MOVING W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIP DOWN FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N68W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 30N45W TO 26N60W...AND DISSIPATES TO 27N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHINH 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W-66W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N15W WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N51W TO 11N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W-66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA