000 AXNT20 KNHC 141802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N38W 14N39W 8N41W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W...TO 11N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CURVES FROM 17N85W...ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE AREA OF TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND IT STOPS AS IT REACHES THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N17W 8N23W 6N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG 25N100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGBK. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AND BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS EXIST FROM TALLAHASSEE TO PERRY. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N75W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N73W...TO HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N66W 24N69W 21N71W. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHOWN UP IN THE RECENT PAST SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF AND IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH FROM 250 MB AND FROM 500 MB ALSO WILL REACH THE ISLAND AT 700 MB FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL/250 MB TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA ALSO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND STAY IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W...TO 11N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CURVES FROM 17N85W...ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE AREA OF TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.29 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.14 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 10N76W...9N79W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN LAND AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA/ COSTA RICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N51W 13N53W 10N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 30N50W 28N60W 31N66W. THE TROUGH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N45W 26N50W 22N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 21W AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 26N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N15W TO 30N21W...27N30W 24N41W...AND 23N54W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N51W 28N60W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N48W 10N55W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT