000 AXNT20 KNHC 141142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO 15N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING THAT IS LIKELY AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO A BASE NEAR 13N58W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N42W TO 15N33W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N74W TO 20N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES BENEATH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N15W TO 05N24W TO 07N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 18W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT IS PROVIDING THE GULF BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...OVER NW MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH OVERALL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 24N W OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 70W-86W THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC REGION AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 20N BETWEEN 64W-78W. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND OVERALL EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGING BETWEEN 75W-85W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-88W WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY ACROSS PANAMA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N/11N...IN THE VICINITY OF 12N77W...AND ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER EAST...E OF 70W...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS WITHIN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS AREA REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W-80W AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-75W. THIS WILL PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION... THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS PROVIDING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION LATER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 34N73W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 22N74W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. BOTH EXTEND SURFACE TROUGHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEIR CIRCULATIONS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-81W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS GENERAL FRONTAL TROUGHING AS A FRACTURED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N71W TO 25N65W AND FROM 27N63W TO 29N56W. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N52W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO 13N58W. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N57W TO 17N46W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 43W-56W. OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N16W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 26N36W THEN WEST- SOUTHWEST TO 20N62W. THE ONLY AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOTED IS SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 18W-29W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN AFRICA NEAR 29N07W TO 23N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN