000 AXNT20 KNHC 140556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N37W TO 15N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING THAT IS LIKELY AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO A BASE NEAR 14N56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N41W TO 14N29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N73W TO 20N71W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES BENEATH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N14W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 07N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 12W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT IS PROVIDING THE GULF BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...OVER NW MEXICO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH OVERALL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 70W-86W THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC REGION AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 24N BETWEEN 63W-77W. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W AND OVERALL EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGING BETWEEN 75W-85W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-85W WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY ACROSS PANAMA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N/11N...IN THE VICINITY OF 15N78W...AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 76W- 81W. FARTHER EAST...E OF 70W...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS WITHIN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS AREA REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W-80W AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS WILL PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION... THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W IS PROVIDING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 35N73W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 23N75W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N70W. BOTH EXTEND SURFACE TROUGHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEIR CIRCULATIONS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 73W-81W. THE TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS GENERAL FRONTAL TROUGHING AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N59W SW TO 28N66W TO 23N73W. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 55W-62W. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N52W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO 12N60W. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N59W TO 17N45W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 41W-58W. OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N19W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 26N34W THEN WEST TO 25N58W. THE ONLY AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOTED IS SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 17W-29W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN AFRICA NEAR 29N09W TO 23N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN