000 AXNT20 KNHC 131715 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700TC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 13N72W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS POSITIONED BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 32W/33W FROM 05N TO 15N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 06N20W TO THE 1012 MB LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 11N33W TO 08N40W TO 10N46W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N52W TO 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N40W TO 13N50W TO 12N62W. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N47W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N43W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 09N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER E MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE E COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N83W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS NORTHERLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13.5N W OF 74.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NW OVER THE AREA E OF 66W. HISPANIOLA... FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND IS ANTICYCLONIC. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO STRONG AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N78W. A JET IS LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA AT 79W TO 25N73W TO BEYOND 32N67W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF UP TO 60 KT ALONG THE JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N64W TO 22N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N57W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 32N32W. A SHARP AND ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 30N20W TO 22N40W TO 16N62W. A JET IS LOCATED ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N60W TO 22N40W TO BEYOND 26N20W AND IS STRONGEST E OF 35W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W TO 25N40W TO 25N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB