000 AXNT20 KNHC 131124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N71W TO 20N69W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES BENEATH INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...HOWEVER UNDER INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS WELL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 69W- 73W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 05N20W TO 10N29W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 07N32W TO 05N36W TO 07N43W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N50W TO 06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 13W-19W...FROM 11N- 15N BETWEEN 23W-31W...FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-35W...AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 39W-52W. THE LAST AREA OF CONVECTION LISTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N45W ANALYZED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 09N49W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 16N43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT IS PROVIDING THE GULF BASIN WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE FLOW IS MOSTLY DRY AIR AND VERY STABLE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 29N89W FURTHER PROMOTES THE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO NEAR 11N85W. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITHIN NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING N OF 16N W OF 81W. HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED LIFTING DYNAMICS WHICH CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W- 74W. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO USHER IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 65W THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONG ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS WITHIN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W. THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING AND MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UNTIL THEN HISPANIOLA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITH INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OF COURSE AS ALWAYS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MAXIMUM AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ADDITION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE WAVE ENERGY PASSES TO THE WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 34N73W THAT SUPPORTS AN OCCLUDED 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W TO 31N77W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 33N73W TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGHING ANALYZED FROM 32N61W SW TO 28N70W THEN BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING IS ALIGNED ALONG AN ARC FROM 25N60W TO 18N63W TO 13N60W WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ARC. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N17W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH TO 30N23W TO 27N40W TO 26N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN