000 AXNT20 KNHC 121751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N42W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 35W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N63W 14N63W MOVING W AT 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL W ATLANTIC FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 55W-59W DUE TO SPEED CONVERGENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW AT 7N29W TO 7N34W TO A 1007 MB LOW AT 12N42W TO 8N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 23W-31W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N105W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PERSIST. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W TO INCLUDE JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO SPEED ADVECTION. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 26N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S FROM 26N73W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N28W TO 29N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W ENHANCING SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N61W ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS AND LOCATED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA