000 AXNT20 KNHC 111756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N54W 17N56W 11N56W MOVING W AT 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N80W 10N81W MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AT 13N17W TO 9N21W TO 10N30W TO THE 1008 MB LOW AT 12N36W TO 8N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N46W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 23W- 28W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO ALABAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY 10-15 KT WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS S OF 28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N102W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PERSIST. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W TO INCLUDE JAMAICA...E CUBA... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N77W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 22N72W TO 18N75W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHON 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N34W 30N40W 31N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 31N25W TO 27N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W ENHANCING SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N56W ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS AND LOCATED ABOVE A TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA