000 AXNT20 KNHC 110603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM STILL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N51W 17N52W 12N53W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W... ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN ITS SATELLITE IMAGERY REPRESENTATION AS COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY OF 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 5N18W...TO 7N25W 11N30W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N34W...TO 9N40W AND 9N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N44W TO 9N48W AND 10N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY TO 13N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N74W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N76W 17N80W 14N84W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN ITS SATELLITE IMAGERY REPRESENTATION AS COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY OF 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN THE ISLAND FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE EVENTUALLY RETURNS AND LASTS FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DIFFERENT TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM 80W EASTWARD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO...TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 75W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N75W IN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N37W TO 22N41W...TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N47W. THE CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE 51W/53W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 31N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N25W TO 29N27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N45W 25N40W 26N32W BEYOND 32N23W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N34W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 39W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT