000 AXNT20 KNHC 101756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N32W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N- 14N BETWEEN 28W-38W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N50W 11N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N75W 10N76W MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W- 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 6N16W TO 6N22W TO 12N28W TO THE 1009 MB LOW AT 11N32W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-22W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N96W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 64W- 68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N77W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SW HAITI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W. THE RESULTANT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHON 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLANTIC ...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N67W ENHANCING SHOWERS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 45W-49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA