000 AXNT20 KNHC 101137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE TO THIS WAVE ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N47W 12N45W... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS POSITION AGREES WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 80W AND NICARAGUA IN ITS COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL...TO 12N23W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N29W...TO 8N35W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 8N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COVERING THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N74W 26N77W 22N80W 19N86W 16N89W...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND 94W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE BAND IS ALONG 30N89W 27N88W 25N86W 23N84W 23N82W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVBS...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL... KEHC...KGBK...KDLP...KMDJ...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...MOSTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE VISIBILITY IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR HAS BEEN AT OR LOWER THAN 3 MILES WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THE VISIBILITY IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...HAS BEEN LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND FOG STARTING TO FORM...COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE VISIBILITY AT PERRY FLORIDA HAS BEEN LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES...RANGING FROM 7 TO 10 MILES AT OTHER TIMES...AND THEN LESS THAN 2 TO 3 MILES AT STILL OTHER TIMES...DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THE VISIBILITY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD HAS BEEN 1 MILE WITH FOG AND LOWER...AND AT CRESTVIEW 3 MILES WITH FOG AND LOWER. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A SERIES OF SEPARATE EAST- TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGES. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DIFFERENT TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM 80W EASTWARD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 16N64W 13N65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND LAND MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE HISPANIOLA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 31N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N29W TO 29N34W 28N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 32N23W 29N30W 27N40W 27N50W 32N53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N47W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N34W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT