000 AXNT20 KNHC 091805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N27W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SPIRAL RAINBANDS ARE NOTICEABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N30W TO 09N31W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS ENGULFING THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE WAVE WHERE CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED. SOUTH OF 15N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N43W TO 14N43W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 41W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 11N74W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N17W TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 10N27W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 05N47W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD FRONT TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N77W...SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO 18N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SE BASIN. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES NEAR 44N72W WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF...JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ALMOST BASIN WIDE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THEN THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE S-SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE BASIN TIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE FAR NW BASIN...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM A RIDGE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COASTLINE OF HONDURAS W OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH A REGION OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOWN IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND EXTENDS INLAND BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N82W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 10N. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 11N74W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK RIDGE S OF 14N IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS TO INLAND PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THURSDAY MORNING. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BASIN AND A WEAK RIDGE S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER HAITI. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK...BUT A MOISTURE SURGE IS TRAILING THIS WAVE WHICH MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD FRONT TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N77W...SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO 18N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N66W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N36W TO 27N43W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 28N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TAIL...N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-60W. OTHERWISE...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 61W-65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS