000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N28W 13N28W 11N27W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION...AND SOME PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N42W 17N42W 12N41W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N70W 15N72W 11N73W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.80 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 10N26W...10N34W...AND 9N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N36W TO 8N42W 9N47W...AND 8N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA...TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.69 IN MERIDA MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN LAND AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 32N72W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N81W 25N90W 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE 28N81W 21N97W LINE. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO 25N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 16N81W FOR NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W 26N60W 22N62W 17N66W 13N71W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN PANAMA...THROUGH PANAMA...THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND ON BOTH SIDES OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 14N93W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30- HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N70W 15N72W 11N73W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N36W...TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N45W...TO 15N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W AND 29N40W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 29N40W TO 29N47W AND 30N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 28N40W 27N47W...BEYOND 31N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N36W 29N25W BEYOND 32N23W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N34W 29N44W...THEN WEAKENING TO 30N51W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N79W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N78W...WITH A COLD FRONT TO 26N80W AND 23N83W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N34W... A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE EAST OF 36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT