000 AXNT20 KNHC 081151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO... ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W...AND TO 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 5N41W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N TO THE EAST OF 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KAREN THAT IS NEAR 30N81W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM 23N90W TO 21N93W AND 18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W. DISSIPATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO 25N88W AND 18N95W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGUL...KGBK...KDLP...AND KMDJ. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA IN MARIANNA. BROOKSVILLE IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY THAT IS LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO 25N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 16N81W FOR NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO... ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.24 IN GUADELOUPE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 16N81W FOR NICARAGUA. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HAITI AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 25N42W 16N45W AND 12N46W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N49W AND 32N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 32N36W 28N46W BEYOND 32N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N31W 28N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 28N36W 24N40W 21N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N34W BEYOND 32N24W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N35W 28N50W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N79W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT