000 AXNT20 KNHC 080601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 69W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N19W 10N25W 8N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 5N40W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO THE REMNANT 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KAREN THAT IS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...FINALLY TO 22N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM 22N92W TOWARD THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N82W 24N90W 19N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...AND MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA BETWEEN DESTIN AND PERRY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 29N83W 22N92W 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N72W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...TO 16N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N66W...TO 24N67W AND 24N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING AT 07/2145 UTC HAS WEAKENED. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 22N79W IN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 15N82W FOR NICARAGUA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 69W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 1.24 IN GUADELOUPE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N75W 9N80W 10N84W 11N87W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT WAS OCCURRING AT 07/2145 UTC HAS WEAKENED. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HAITI AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N42W 17N42W AND 14N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 36W TROPICAL WAVE ALSO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 32N56W 31N50W 28N46W 30N42W BEYOND 32N38W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 32N50W 32N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N54W BEYOND 32N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N36W 32N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N33W BEYOND 32N24W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N65W TO 24N68W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR A COLD FRONT 31N36W 29N50W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT