000 AXNT20 KNHC 071753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 9N28W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N31W TO 7N31W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N64W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 60W-62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N18W TO THE 1013 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W- 27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-14N E OF 32W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E CONUS INTO THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF 83W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 07/1500 UTC OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF KAREN...NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING ALONG 25N86W TO 24N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N3W ALONG 24N86W 22N91W TO 19N95W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 84W S OF FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES AND A 1024 MB HIGH OVER N MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE N GULF COAST W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE E CONUS WILL ALLOW E WINDS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE PASSING S OF THE ISLAND TUE AND WED WILL RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N77W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO BEYOND 32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-77W WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N72W AND EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W THROUGH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N66W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 21N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W ALONG 24N58W TO BEYOND 32N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 54W-63W AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 67W-70W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE 1013 MB LOW WILL DRIFT NW WHILE DISSIPATING TONIGHT INTO TUE. COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER S THU AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW