000 AXNT20 KNHC 071223 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO CONFIRM THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER AND TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N32W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 14N TO 19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH- WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N21W 5N30W AND 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N ALONG 97W. THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KAREN IS NEAR 29N86.5W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND LAND. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OFF AND ON...DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM SARASOTA TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION TO PUNTA GORDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N86.5W TO 20N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N74W...ACROSS SOUTH- EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W 28N67W... TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 34N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS ALONG 59W FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 14N TO 19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... TO 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 76W. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME. AN INVERTED TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W FROM 19N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N40W TO 25N40W 15N42W AND 9N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W 25N38W 20N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N32W 26N36W 19N39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N35W TO 28N48W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT