000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N27W AND MOVES WEST NEAR 5 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N59W TO 10N59W...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 10N64W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE WAVE...100 NM WEST OF THE AXIS AND 50 NM OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG 08N23W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 07N27W TO 05N33W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N33W TO 06N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N-12N E OF 17W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-27W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO 25N94W TO 21N97W. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 29N88W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 25N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE N 25N BETWEEN 84W-88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-27N WHILE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF KAREN WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY AFTERNOON...FROM WESTERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BASIN AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY DRY AIR ABOUNDS BASIN WIDE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A REGION OF MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 77W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. THE AXIS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE NORTHERN ISLAND COAST. A TROPICAL WAVES IS JUST OF EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN LEWARD ISLANDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK TO BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW TO BE NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND WIND FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 20N51W ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUAL RAINSHOWERS MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N71W EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO CUBA. THIS TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AS WELL AS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THIS UPPER LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO 29N69W WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM WEST OF ITS AXIS. A WEAK TROUGH IS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 26N64W TO 20N66W. A SECTOR OF UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST FROM 24N58W TO 20N61W WITH TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS