000 AXNT20 KNHC 060535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 91.9W AT 06/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 104 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ...STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 85W-90W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO 5N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 21W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO 8N54W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 47W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W TO MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 57W- 64W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 14N20W TO 8N23W TO 6N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N30W TO 7N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 91W WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND MERGE WITH KAREN IN 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF PRODUCING THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF KAREN...WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY SINCE A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N66W TO 23N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 54W-66W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N44W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 28N35W TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA